CUED Publications database

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Risk Score System for COVID-19 Inpatients: A Multi-Center Retrospective Study in China.

Yuan, Y and Sun, C and Tang, X and Cheng, C and Mombaerts, L and Wang, M and Hu, T and Sun, C and Guo, Y and Li, X and Xu, H and Ren, T and Xiao, Y and Xiao, Y and Zhu, H and Wu, H and Li, K and Chen, C and Liu, Y and Liang, Z and Cao, Z and Zhang, H-T and Ch Paschaldis, I and Liu, Q and Goncalves, J and Zhong, Q and Yan, L (2020) Development and Validation of a Prognostic Risk Score System for COVID-19 Inpatients: A Multi-Center Retrospective Study in China. Engineering (Beijing). ISSN 2095-8099

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Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a worldwide pandemic. Hospitalized patients of COVID-19 suffer from a high mortality rate, motivating the development of convenient and practical methods that allow clinicians to promptly identify high-risk patients. Here, we have developed a risk score using clinical data from 1479 inpatients admitted to Tongji Hospital, Wuhan, China (development cohort) and externally validated with data from two other centers: 141 inpatients from Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan, China (validation cohort 1) and 432 inpatients from The Third People's Hospital of Shenzhen, Shenzhen, China (validation cohort 2). The risk score is based on three biomarkers that are readily available in routine blood samples and can easily be translated into a probability of death. The risk score can predict the mortality of individual patients more than 12 d in advance with more than 90% accuracy across all cohorts. Moreover, the Kaplan-Meier score shows that patients can be clearly differentiated upon admission as low, intermediate, or high risk, with an area under the curve (AUC) score of 0.9551. In summary, a simple risk score has been validated to predict death in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); it has also been validated in independent cohorts.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: COVID-19 Mortality risk prediction Risk score
Subjects: UNSPECIFIED
Divisions: Div F > Control
Depositing User: Cron Job
Date Deposited: 12 Dec 2020 20:17
Last Modified: 07 Sep 2021 02:17
DOI: 10.1016/j.eng.2020.10.013