CUED Publications database

Handling uncertainty in housing stock models

Booth, AT and Choudhary, R and Spiegelhalter, DJ (2012) Handling uncertainty in housing stock models. Building and Environment, 48. pp. 35-47. ISSN 0360-1323

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Abstract

Housing stock models can be useful tools in helping to assess the environmental and socio-economic impacts of retrofits to residential buildings; however, existing housing stock models are not able to quantify the uncertainties that arise in the modelling process from various sources, thus limiting the role that they can play in helping decision makers. This paper examines the different sources of uncertainty involved in housing stock models and proposes a framework for handling these uncertainties. This framework involves integrating probabilistic sensitivity analysis with a Bayesian calibration process in order to quantify uncertain parameters more accurately. The proposed framework is tested on a case study building, and suggestions are made on how to expand the framework for retrofit analysis at an urban-scale. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Bayesian Calibration Energy Housing Stock Uncertainty
Subjects: UNSPECIFIED
Divisions: Div D > Structures
Depositing User: Cron Job
Date Deposited: 07 Mar 2014 11:43
Last Modified: 14 Dec 2014 02:45
DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2011.08.016