CUED Publications database

Modelling the evolution of uncertainty levels during design

Wynn, DC and Grebici, K and Clarkson, PJ (2011) Modelling the evolution of uncertainty levels during design. International Journal on Interactive Design and Manufacturing, 5. pp. 187-202. ISSN 1955-2513

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Abstract

Design work involves uncertainty that arises from, and influences, the progressive development of solutions. This paper analyses the influences of evolving uncertainty levels on the design process. We focus on uncertainties associated with choosing the values of design parameters, and do not consider in detail the issues that arise when parameters must first be identified. Aspects of uncertainty and its evolution are discussed, and a new task-based model is introduced to describe process behaviour in terms of changing uncertainty levels. The model is applied to study two process configuration problems based on aircraft wing design: one using an analytical solution and one using Monte-Carlo simulation. The applications show that modelling uncertainty levels during design can help assess management policies, such as how many concepts should be considered during design and to what level of accuracy. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Design process model Discrete-event simulation Uncertainty levels
Subjects: UNSPECIFIED
Divisions: Div C > Engineering Design
Depositing User: Cron Job
Date Deposited: 07 Mar 2014 11:31
Last Modified: 08 Dec 2014 02:33
DOI: 10.1007/s12008-011-0131-y