CUED Publications database

Thermal building simulation using the UKCP09 probabilistic climate projections

Tian, W and de Wilde, P (2011) Thermal building simulation using the UKCP09 probabilistic climate projections. Journal of Building Performance Simulation, 4. pp. 105-124. ISSN 1940-1493

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Abstract

This article investigates how to use UK probabilistic climate-change projections (UKCP09) in rigorous building energy analysis. Two office buildings (deep plan and shallow plan) are used as case studies to demonstrate the application of UKCP09. Three different methods for reducing the computational demands are explored: statistical reduction (Finkelstein-Schafer [F-S] statistics), simplification using degree-day theory and the use of metamodels. The first method, which is based on an established technique, can be used as reference because it provides the most accurate information. However, it is necessary to automatically choose weather files based on F-S statistic by using computer programming language because thousands of weather files created from UKCP09 weather generator need to be processed. A combination of the second (degree-day theory) and third method (metamodels) requires only a relatively small number of simulation runs, but still provides valuable information to further implement the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The article also demonstrates how grid computing can be used to speed up the calculation for many independent EnergyPlus models by harnessing the processing power of idle desktop computers. © 2011 International Building Performance Simulation Association (IBPSA).

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Building simulation Climate change Metamodel Probabilistic method Thermal performance UKCP09 climate data
Subjects: UNSPECIFIED
Divisions: Div D > Structures
Depositing User: Cron Job
Date Deposited: 07 Mar 2014 11:30
Last Modified: 08 Dec 2014 02:29
DOI: 10.1080/19401493.2010.502246