CUED Publications database

The Bayesian view of extreme events

McRobie, A (2005) The Bayesian view of extreme events. Structural Engineer, 83. pp. 21-24. ISSN 1466-5123

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The Bayesian perspective of designing for the consequences of hazard is discussed. Structural engineers should be educated in Bayesian theory and its underlying philosophy, and about the centrality to the prediction problem of the predictive distribution. The primary contribution that Bayesianism can make to the debate about extreme possibilities is its clarification of the language of and thinking about risk. Frequentist methodologies are the wrong approach to the decisions that engineers need to make, decisions that involve assessments of abstract future possibilities based on incomplete and abstract information.

Item Type: Article
Divisions: Div D > Structures
Depositing User: Cron Job
Date Deposited: 17 Jul 2017 19:45
Last Modified: 03 Aug 2017 03:14