CUED Publications database

Exploring industry dynamics and interactions

Routley, M and Phaal, R and Probert, D (2013) Exploring industry dynamics and interactions. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 80. pp. 1147-1161. ISSN 0040-1625

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Abstract

Within strategic technology management and innovation, often stakeholders extrapolate past industry dynamics, trends and patterns into the future. One frequently used concept is that of 'lifecycles' - an analogy of a sequence of stages encountered by living organisms. Lifecycle terms - such as technology, product, industry - are frequently used interchangeably and without clear definition. Within the interdisciplinary context of technology management and forecasting, this juxtaposition of dynamics can create confusion rather than simplification. This paper explores some of the dynamics typically associated with technology-based industries, illustrated with data from the early US automotive industry. A wide range of dimensions are seen to have potential to influence the path of industry development, and technology roadmapping architecture is used to present a simplified visualisation of some of these. Stakeholders need to consider the units of analysis, causality and synchronicity of relevant different dynamics, rather than isolated lifecycles. Some graphical curves represent simple aggregation of components; other dynamics have significant impact, but incur time lags, rather than being superimposed. To optimise alignment of the important dimensions within any technology development, and for future strategy decisions, understanding these interactions is critical. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Industry dynamics Lifecycle Technology system
Subjects: UNSPECIFIED
Divisions: Div E > Strategy and Policy
Depositing User: Cron Job
Date Deposited: 07 Mar 2014 11:28
Last Modified: 08 Dec 2014 02:18
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.04.015