CUED Publications database

Quantifying multidisciplinary uncertainty in satellite system design with active subspaces

Hu, X and Parks, GT and Chen, X (2015) Quantifying multidisciplinary uncertainty in satellite system design with active subspaces. In: UNSPECIFIED pp. 10497-10510..

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Uncertainty quantification has recently been receiving much attention from aerospace engineering community. With ever-increasing requirements for robustness and reliability, satellite conceptual design attaches more significance to system uncertainty quantification for performance variability and risk assessment. However, coupled multi-disciplines and cross propagation hamper the efficiency and accuracy of high-dimensional uncertainty analysis. In this study, an uncertainty quantification methodology based on active subspaces is established for satellite systemdesign. The active subspace reduces the dimension and measures the contributions of input uncertainties. A comprehensive characterization of associated uncertain factors is made and all subsystem models are built for uncertainty propagation. By integrating a system decoupling strategy, the multidimensional uncertainty effect is efficiently represented by a one-dimensional active subspace for each design. The confidential subspace structure is checked by nonparametric bootstrap resampling and verified by Monte Carlo propagation for error analysis. To show the performance of active subspaces, 18 uncertainty parameters of an earth observation satellite are exemplified and then another 5 design uncertainties are incorporated. The uncertainties that contribute the most to satellite mass and total cost are ranked, and the quantification is achieved by a relatively small number of support samples. The methodology with considerably less cost exhibits high accuracy and strong adaptability, providing a potential template to tackle multidisciplinary uncertainty in other satellite systems.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
Divisions: Div A > Energy
Depositing User: Cron Job
Date Deposited: 17 Jul 2017 19:00
Last Modified: 31 May 2018 02:01