CUED Publications database

If I build it, will they come? Predicting new venue visitation patterns through mobility data

D’Silva, K and Noulas, A and Musolesi, M and Mascolo, C and Sklar, M (2017) If I build it, will they come? Predicting new venue visitation patterns through mobility data. In: UNSPECIFIED.

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Abstract

Estimating revenue and business demand of a newly opened venue is paramount as these early stages often involve critical decisions such as rst rounds of stang and resource allocation. Traditionally, this estimation has been performed through coarse measures such as observing numbers in local venues. The advent of crowdsourced data from devices and services has opened the door to better predictions of temporal visitation patterns for locations and venues. In this paper, using mobility data from the location-based service Foursquare, we treat venue categories as proxies for urban activities and analyze how they become popular over time. The main contribution of this work is a prediction framework able to use characteristic temporal signatures of places together with k-nearest neighbor metrics capturing similarities among urban regions to forecast weekly popularity dynamics of a new venue establishment. Our evaluation shows that temporally similar areas of a city can be valuable predictors, decreasing error by 41%. Our ndings have the potential to impact the design of location-based technologies and decisions made by new business owners.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
Subjects: UNSPECIFIED
Divisions: UNSPECIFIED
Depositing User: Cron Job
Date Deposited: 16 Feb 2018 20:15
Last Modified: 15 Apr 2021 06:25
DOI: 10.1145/3139958.3140035